Mark Carney has secured a notable election victory for the Liberal Party in Canada, overcoming an initial 12.5% implied probability according to betting market data from BetVictor Canada.
When betting markets opened in November, the Conservative Party was heavily favoured, priced at 1/7 (-700) and later shortening to 1/20 (-2000) by January, reflecting a 95.2% implied probability of winning. The Liberal Party, initially priced at 7/1 (+700), began gaining momentum in February, coinciding with increased political commentary from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Canada’s sovereignty.
By April, market sentiment had shifted significantly, with the Liberals moving into favouritism at 4/11 (-275), while the Conservatives drifted to 7/4 (+175). The outcome marks a substantial turnaround in betting market trends and reflects dynamic shifts in political betting patterns.
BetVictor Canada reported heightened activity throughout the election period, with 73.53% of all outright market bets placed on either a Conservative majority or minority outcome. The developments underline the growing role of political events in driving engagement within the broader igaming market.
Sam Boswell, spokesperson of BetVictor Canada, said: “Few elections have seen the remarkable turnaround that we have witnessed in Canada in the past few months.
“The ruling Liberal Party were 7/1 (+700) outsiders when outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, prompting his replacement, Mark Carney, to call a snap election.
“But thanks to the wave of discontent towards US President Donald Trump, the Liberals stormed into favouritism earlier this month before condemning the Conservatives to a shock defeat.
“Pierre Poilievre’s party were at one stage 1/20 (-2000) favourites, and the outcome marks a big win for BetVictor Canada – as 73.53% of all bets taken in the outright market were on a Conservative win.”
