For years, Europe’s online gambling debate has been framed as a balancing act between protecting players, collecting tax, and keeping the legal market attractive.
The latest data suggests something blunter is happening. The balance is tipping, and the illegal market is not just surviving – it’s thriving.
Highlighting the latest research from intelligence platform Yield Sec, iGaming.com recently reported on the dramatic rise of illegal gambling across the EU.
Building on this coverage, let’s take a closer look at what the expanding illegal market means for regulators, operators, and the future of Europe’s gambling landscape.
What Yield Sec Numbers Are Really Saying
The European Casino Association commissioned Yield Sec to assess illegal gambling activity across all 27 EU member states, and the results are alarming.
Illegal gambling revenue now exceeds the legal market by more than double. That is not a minor compliance issue; it’s a parallel economy.
It also appears to be getting easier, not harder, for illegal operators to reach players. Yield Sec’s report found that the number of illegal operators targeting EU citizens increased by 26% in 2024.
More operators usually mean more marketing, more domains, more payment workarounds, and more ways to mimic legitimate brands.
The black market’s gambling revenue was estimated at €80.6 billion, reflecting an estimated €20 billion loss in tax revenue across EU member states. For posterity, the reported legal gambling tax revenue in 2024 was €8.4 billion.
The Visibility Problem: Black Market Sites Win the Attention Game
Yield Sec found that around 81 million Europeans, out of 118 million who participated in online gambling, are exposed to more illegal operators than legal ones.
The report also found that 92% of online gambling content promotes illegal operators, leading to 18% of Europe’s total population engaging with them. That “content exposure” framing matters because it shifts the conversation away from a simple enforcement story.
If illegal brands dominate the feeds, search results, and streaming ecosystems where gambling is promoted or discussed, then legal operators are competing at a disadvantage before a player even reaches a checkout page. The illegal market wins at the first click.
The most effective strategy is to disrupt the routes that keep them in front of users, not just the websites they ultimately land on. This is exactly why the case for a united response to combat illegal gambling keeps coming up in industry conversation, because fragmented enforcement gives illegal supply a head start by default.
This is also where the black market becomes concerning. It is not always an obvious scam site with broken English and a suspicious URL. The report notes that illegal operators often pose as legitimate platforms, creating a thin layer of trust. If the brand looks normal and the bonuses are better, many people will not stop to ask if it’s licensed.
Why People Play at Black Market Sites
There are several reasons channelisation is under pressure, even in stronger markets. Sweden is highlighted as a warning sign, with a reduction to 85% channelisation.
The reasons given are practical and, from a user’s point of view, predictable:
- Some players believe they have better chances of winning.
- Illegal operators offer more enticing bonus deals.
- Blocked players seek ways to bypass restrictions.
- Illegal sportsbooks have more livestreams.
What Does All This Mean for Operators and Regulators in 2026?
If the black market is already taking 71% of a €114.3 billion gross gaming revenue market, then Europe is not debating a future risk; it’s managing a present reality.
Regulators, in practical terms, have a few levers that actually move outcomes:
- Disrupt distribution, not just domains. Blocking websites helps, but the bigger battlefield is how illegal brands are promoted. That includes ad networks, affiliates, and the social and streaming ecosystems that give illegal operators oxygen.
- Treat payment access as a policy tool. When money cannot move easily, the illegal offer becomes less convenient. That requires coordination with payment providers and a willingness to mobilise quickly as tactics evolve.
- Make the legal product resilient. Player protection does not have to mean a product nobody wants. The aim should be a legal market that is safer, yes, but also usable and competitive enough that the average consumer does not feel pushed elsewhere.
- Align around shared harm signals. The EU is moving in this direction. Many factors point to the EU approving EGBA’s standard on markers of harm, which is designed to help member states protect players more efficiently.
Final Words
The most worrying part of the Yield Sec picture is not just how big the illegal market is. It’s how normal it can look, how aggressively it’s promoted, and how easily it can outcompete regulated operators on convenience and incentives.
If Europe wants higher channelisation, it cannot rely on licensing frameworks alone. The legal market must be protected from unfair competition, and that means tackling distribution channels, not only individual sites.
Otherwise, the continent risks a future where “regulated gambling” exists mostly on paper, while the real growth happens somewhere offshore, one click ahead of enforcement.
