BREAKING NEWS: Germany’s embattled gambling sector may be showing signs of a cautious recovery as the regulator reports five percent year-on-year growth and ramps up enforcement efforts.
According to the 2024 Activity Report released by national regulator GGL (Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder) on June 27, the German market recorded a five percent year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in gross gambling revenue (GGR), with the total market (online and land-based) reaching €14.4 billion (£12.2 billion) in 2024.
The five percent annual growth reported by the GGL represents a healthy rebound compared to 2023’s sluggish two percent growth rate, and along with the GGL’s reinforced attitude towards countering illegal gambling, will come as a relief to many.
Illicit Market
As well as detailing growth, the report focused on a major and ongoing challenge for the German market: illegal gambling.
The regulator said that in 2024 it had identified 850 illegal sites operated by 212 unlicensed operators.
They estimated that this accounts for a betting volume of between €500–600 million (£425–510 million), roughly three to four percent of the total legal market, and around 25 percent of the legal online market.
Yet, despite this being an updated estimate, it remains unchanged from the two preceding years. And it is one widely challenged by industry stakeholders, including the operator trade body, the Deutscher Online Casinoverband (DOCV).
The DOVC has previously disagreed with GGL estimates, saying that the real legal market channelisation rate for slots remains low, at between 20 and 40 percent, while sports betting is higher, but still only around 60-70 percent of revenue.
Past academic studies have also produced similar estimates.
Discrepancies
To understand these discrepancies, we spoke with a GGL spokesperson, who explained:
“The illegal market estimate is based solely on the sites identified and monitored by the GGL. It is essential to note that these figures pertain specifically to identified providers and do not necessarily encompass the entire spectrum of illicit activity.
“Differences between the GGL’s data and those provided by industry associations may arise from diverging methodologies, data sources, or market definitions.
“The GGL bases its analysis on regulatory enforcement data and structured market observation.”
Enforcement
2024 was also a year of enforcement action at the GGL.
The regulator ramped up measures, initiating 231 prohibition proceedings, reviewing over 1,700 websites, and taking down 450 illegal sites. Geo and payment blocking software were used to disable another 657 sites.
And in another win for operators, according to the GGL, their efforts have resulted in a significant reduction in the visibility of illegal products. Since September 2024, only German-regulated operators have been allowed to advertise via Google Ads.
GGL CEO, Ronald Benter, recognised the success of recent measures, but reminded the industry of the need for greater co-operation:
“Our measures are having an impact. Nevertheless, combating illegal offerings remains challenging and requires perseverance and close cooperation with national and international partners,” he affirmed.
Turning Point
The German gambling market has faced significant headwinds since legalising as a unified and federally-regulated gaming market in 2021 via the Interstate Treaty on Gambling.
Regulators and lawmakers, who aimed to protect players, imposed strict advertising, staking, and deposit limits. Critics argued that such overly tough measures only impeded competition — and boosted, illicit, offshore gaming.
Yet while the German market remains under pressure, these latest GGL figures show signs of recovery and growth–on par with the rest of the European gambling market–and when twinned with stronger enforcement from the national regulator (and ongoing evaluation and review of the Interstate Treaty on Gambling), they could signal a major turning point for the German market and operators.
