Does the seizure and sequestration of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro by the United States signify a bona fide invasion, or no invasion?
That’s the question roiling still largely-unregulated prediction markets after Polymarket paid out US$400,000 (£296,310) to a punter who bet US$32,000 (£23,703) that Maduro would be toppled before the end of January when the position was trading at an average of seven cents – the equivalent of having a seven percent chance of “winning”.
But Polymarket, which only returned to trading on December 2 last year, 2025, after resolving a long-running dispute with the regulatory U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), dating from 2022, is still disputing the kidnapping of Maduro by U.S. Special Forces in the early hours of Saturday morning as signalling an “invasion” of the oil-rich South American nation.
Controversy
To date some US$10.5 million (£7.77m) has been wagered on Venezuela being invaded by the U.S. – most of the contracts ending at the end of this month; others finishing in March or December.
Polymarket–despite President Trump’s repeated assertions that his administration now “runs Venezuela”–refuses to acknowledge that the seizure of Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores constitutes “an invasion” of the country with the world’s largest proven reserves of petroleum – estimated to be in excess of 300 billion barrels of oil.
They say they will only pay out if the U.S. takes full control of Venezuelan territory with boots-on-the-ground.
And as such, Polymarket’s definition of “invasion” has triggered a torrent of online controversy.
Illegal Gambling Sites
“Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness,” stormed one bettor, quoted by the Financial Times, who called themselves “Skinner”.
“Words are redefined at will, detached from any recognised meaning, and facts are simply ignored. That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd.”
Polymarket–a blockchain site, founded by Shayne Coplan in June 2020 and now valued at US$9 billion (£6.66bn)–has yet to comment.
But the bet on Maduro’s political defenestration has refocussed issues and controversies surrounding prediction markets and their potential impact on democratic governance, often aired by their many critics, who say the futures traders are little more than illegal gambling sites.
Inside Trading
And with significant members of the Trump Organisation, among them the president’s own son, Donald J. Trump Jr., having leading positions in prediction market sites, the timing of the bets on the Venezuela contracts appeared to indicate the trader or traders had inside knowledge of Saturday’s special forces sequestration.
From Guatemala, to Nicaragua, Panama, Chile and Bolivia, via Grenada and Dominicana, et al, the United States has a long and controversial history of destabilizing and over-throwing Latin American governments perceived to be opposed to the so-called “American Way”.
Prediction markets everywhere are also fast-taking trades on the likelihood of regime change in Cuba and the seizure of Greenland before the end of this new year.
Watch this space!
