Controversial prediction markets site Polymarket–at the centre of an alleged insider betting scandal over the sequestration of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces earlier this month–is now under explosive investigation by Israel’s Shin Bet secret services over Iran bombing leaks.
“This is explosive. You couldn’t make it up,” a high-level source close to Polymarket told iGamingFuture in a confidential phone call over the weekend.
New York-city based Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, who became the world’s youngest self-made billionaire in 2025, was only certified to start domestic trading in the U.S. by authorities in December.
But along with other principal prediction market rivals, such as Kalshi and Robinhood, it is facing a blizzard of legal challenges across the nation, with authorities in Nevada, New Jersey and New York, lining up to suppress the Futures sites, who are currently driving the proverbial coach and horses through traditional concepts of iGaming, online sports betting and wider gambling.
Venezuela Kidnapping
Polymarket, which has recently signed a data streaming deal with streaming giant DAZN, is now also banned in Belgium, Romania, Ukraine and most recently in Hungary and Portugal.
But earlier this month, as reported in iGamingFuture, Polymarket was accused of receiving an “insider bet” after paying out US$400,000 to a mystery punter, who unerringly predicted the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces “before the end of January”.
According to highly-placed sources, only a member of the Trump administration could have known the timing of Maduro’s toppling.
Now Polymarket is at the centre of another “insider trading” storm, having paid out on bets (predictions) regarding Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June last year.
Israel’s Public Broadcaster KAN news has now reported that “an unknown individual within Israel’s security system may be using insider information on an online gambling website [Polymarket]”.
And Shin Bet, the Jewish nation’s counter-intelligence service, also known as ISA, Israel Security Agency, are now investigating.
Friday The 13th
According to the KAN report, the anonymous user placed four bets on events surrounding Israel’s Operation Rising Lion air strikes on Iran’s putative nuclear sites that began on Friday, June 13 last year.
The gambler–presumed to be a member of Shin Bet–reportedly made over US$100,000 (£73,155) in profit on their wagers; which said that Israel would attack Iran before July, 2025, and that they would launch their strikes on the Muslim holy day of Friday, called Jum’ah.
The internal Shin Bet has revealed that “the trader” began placing “high-conviction” bets just 48-hours before the Israeli Air Force strikes and that “they aligned precisely with Israel’s internal timeline.”
iGamingFuture has contacted Polymarket about these reports and we are awaiting a response.
This is a breaking story.
Watch this space.
