Power Shift As The Americas Set To Surpass Europe’s iGaming GGR, Says Vixio

A cross-Atlantic iGaming power shift is underway, with regulated online gambling in The Americas set to equal–and surpass–GGR in Europe, predicts forensic financial analysts Vixio.

Combined digital GGR in North America–the United States, Mexico and Canada–and Latin America is expected to draw level with Europe by 2028, with both markets each generating the equivalent of US$56.3 billion (£44.9bn) GGR, say experts at London-based Vixio.

According to Vixio, GGR in The Americas will be at least US$32.5 billion (£24.67 bn) by 2026 – up from US$15.6 billion (£11.84 bn) in 2022, more than doubling in size in four-years.

In comparison, the European regulated online gambling market is projected to be worth €37.3 billion (£31.42 bn/US$40.28 bn) by 2026, up from just under €30 billion (£25.29 bn/US$32.4 bn) in 2022.

And both continental markets are set to draw level by GGR by 2028, predicts Vixio, with The Americas perhaps even pulling away, depending on currency values and fluctuations.

Power Shift

James Kilsby, Chief Analyst at Vixio, says the statistics “project a power shift” across the Atlantic – westwards.

“Prior to 2018 [and the repeal of PASPA], the regulated online gambling market was highly euro-centric, but the legalisation of sports betting and iGaming in various U.S. states as well as the major markets of Ontario and Brazil has coincided with stricter regulations in European countries that have restricted growth in a number of cases,” he said.

Kilsby refers to the recent round of tightening restrictions that have swept mature markets in Europe, particularly the U.K., Germany, Netherlands, France and Sweden.

These restrictions, which aim to increase player safety in the digital age, include reductions to slot stake limits and play speeds, new rules for game design, affordability checks, and bonus and advertising limits, among others.

In countries like Germany, which have had strict regulations since 2021, stakeholders have argued they have increased friction for consumers at regulated sites, reduced spending, restricted growth and dramatically reduced rates of channelisation (legal, regulated betting).

Earlier this year, estimates from Germany’s online casino trade body Deutscher Online Casinoverband (DOCV) put channelisation rates as low as 20–40 percent for online slots and 60–70 percent for sports betting.

The U.K.–still in the process of implementing its most recent reforms, five-years in the making, and still counting–now stands at the same regulatory crossroads.

Channelisation

According to research from the International Betting Integrity Association, in 2024, the U.K. was estimated to have one of the highest channelisation rates in Europe–98 percent–a solid sign of player trust in U.K. operators and regulations.

Many industry stakeholders advocate that, as in Germany, the new restrictions–which the U.K. Betting and Gaming Council has called well-intentioned but ill-thought-out–could threaten the rate of participation in the legal market and, when twinned with high compliance standards, market saturation, and high taxes, lead to lower GGR and make it unattractive for consumers and operators alike.

While Vixio forecasts robust growth across the entire North and Latin American region–with a combined compound annual growth rate reaching 20.3 percent until 2028–the loin’s share of revenue, some US$41 billion (32.8 bn), which is just over 70 percent, is expected to be generated by the U.S.

It should also be noted that currently, momentum for legalising online sports betting gambling and 360 iGaming has slowed in the U.S., with no new states adopting iGaming since Rhode Island in 2023, and online sports betting stalling since Missouri’s 2024 ballot approval.

Loopholes

This regulatory stagnation has allowed alternatives, like prediction markets, to leverage legislative loopholes and take advantage of gaps in the U.S. gambling landscape, offering innovative new products and causing friction with regulators and state lawmakers.

Unlike conventional sportsbooks, which are taxed between 15-51 percent in every U.S. state they operate in, while also paying a federal levy of 0.25 percent on each bet, prediction markets pay federal taxes at 21 percent – and only pay taxes in the state their business is registered.

For Kalshi, registered in Delaware, this means a local corporate tax rate of 8.7 percent — a far cry from the state’s sports betting tax rate of 50 percent.

While prediction market trading volume does not directly equate to betting handle or GGR–and therefore cannot be compared outright and does not figure into economic betting forecasts–, recent trading volume at leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket on the election of the new pope, for example, highlights the economic scale at play, with trading reportedly totalling over US$40 million (£30.36m).