It’s difficult to gauge whether President Trump’s new prediction market ally was speaking tongue-in-cheek or fervently believed the spiel he was spinning at the launch of the ground-breaking Truth Predict site.
Here’s a taster: “For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets – with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight.”
So blurbed Kris Marszalek, Co-Founder and CEO of Crypto.com, as he announced the launch of the new prediction market platform, a joint venture with Trump Media and Technology Group Corp, the operator of Truth Social.
Given that Donald J. Trump’s holding company, the Trump Organisation, has made at least US$1 billion in deals since he became U.S. president at the start of the year and that Mr Marszalek is currently worth some US$700 million, such modesty beggars belief.
Collaboration
The collaboration will make Truth Social the first social media platform to integrate event-based trading functionality through a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse.
Truth Social will launch “Truth Predict” – a feature enabling users to trade prediction contracts on outcomes across a range of topics including political elections, economic indicators, such as inflation and interest rates, commodity prices, and sporting events.
This is not Mr Trump’s first flirtation or marriage with gambling. Who, for example, can forget the controversy over his Atlantic City, New Jersey, casino ventures that ended in fevered labour disputes, demolition and bankruptcy?
Of course, technically, the 45th and 47th president of the United States of America has nothing whatsoever to do with the deal. He’s adjudicated all day-to-day running of his vast 200 companies empire to his son and acolyte Donald J. Trump Jr.
Problematic
This alone makes the launch of Trump Social deeply problematic, and even more so given the uncertain legality of the prediction markets phenomenon itself.
The world and a plethora of U.S. state regulators–New Jersey, Nevada, Maryland and Massachusetts–have yet to decide if prediction markets are legitimate or just a clever illicit runaround to avoid gambling laws and gaming taxes.
Nonetheless, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, et al, have flouted such concerns and ploughed on, harnessing hundreds of millions of extra investment dollars along the way and acquiring powerful political support by appointing Trump Jr. as an official advisor and board member.
Not to be out-flanked the original sports betting disruptors, Flutter Entertainment’s FanDuel and DraftKings have also bought into the action by, respectively, buying futures trading-licensed CME Group and Railbird.
Stench
Now–despite the legal uncertainty and stench of insider trading–Trump Predict has entered this new iGaming space.
Truth Social and Truth+ users will also be able to use their existing “Truth gems,” earned through platform engagement, by converting them into the Cronos (CRO) cryptocurrency for participation in Truth Predict contracts.
“We are thrilled to become the world’s first publicly-traded social media platform to offer our users access to prediction markets,” trilled Devin Nunes, Chairman and CEO of Trump Media, in a press statement.
“Truth Predict will allow our loyal users to engage in prediction markets with a trusted network while harnessing our social media platform to provide totally unique ways for users to discuss and compare their predictions.
Truth Will Out
“With more than US$3 billion (£2.26bn) in financial assets as of the end of the second quarter, and having posted our first quarter of positive operating cash flow after going public just last year, Trump Media is well-positioned to leverage our strong balance sheet and existing social media capabilities to create a new standard for access to prediction market platforms.”
And Crypto.com’s Marszalek affirmed: “Prediction markets are poised to be a multi-deca-billion dollar industry.
“We’re thrilled to combine with Truth Social to support the world’s first prediction markets available from a social media platform. This aligns perfectly with what users look for in social media – a community to engage with and seek truth.”
One person’s “truth” may be another person’s “lie”.
But “Truth”, as the adage glows, “will always Out!”
