Argentina has banned Polymarket–one of the world’s largest prediction market platforms–after a contract estimating February’s inflation data registered a trend reversal 15 minutes before the official government numbers were released, suggesting an insider leak.
A court ruling ordered the removal of the app and imposed nationwide restrictions at the internet provider level, effectively blocking access to Polymarket across the country. Authorities cited concerns about illegal gambling practices and insider trading on the platform.
Argentina is the second Latin American country to ban Polymarket. Colombia took similar action last year after Polymarket was accused of interfering with the electoral process by listing predictions favouring the right-wing candidate in the presidential election.
In total, 34 countries have now banned Polymarket.
Suspicious Trading
The decision to block Polymarket came after the platform registered suspicious activity on a contract linked to Argentina’s February consumer price index announcement.
The National Institute of Statistics and Census reported an inflation rate of 2.9 percent, above economists’ predictions of 2.7 percent.
Just 15 minutes before the official data was released, the contract flipped – a pattern viewed as highly suspicious among authorities, suggesting a possible insider leak.
Following this incident, a court in Buenos Aires has now ordered the telecommunications regulator ENACOM to collaborate with internet service providers and block access to Polymarket.
Google and Apple have also been instructed to remove Polymarket’s app from the platform and restrict access for users in Argentina.
The investigation concluded that the platform operated as an online gambling system disguised as a prediction market.
The Prediction Game
Argentina’s offensive against Polymarket reflects the growing global scrutiny of predictive market platforms. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi face increasing regulatory challenges in various parts of the world.
Polymarket recently drew criticism for hosting a predictive market allowing users to bet on the likelihood of nuclear weapons detonations. The platform closed this market amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran.
Brazil is also debating the true nature of predictive markets, with talks intensifying after Kalshi launched last week.
Unregulated Gambling
The court decision in Argentina stems from a lawsuit filed by the Buenos Aires City Lottery (LOTBA) and the Argentine Chamber of Casinos and Bingo Halls (CASCBA), which alleged that Polymarket operated as an unregulated gambling platform in the country.
The ruling also highlighted the consumer risks posed by the platform, which allows users to access its services without identity checks – potentially allowing minors to participate using credit cards or cryptocurrencies.
Kalshi, a similar platform, does have these checks and promotes itself as a “regulated” predictive marketplace.
