The UK’s illegal iGaming and betting market could account for almost one fifth of all online gambling stakes by 2028, according to new forecasts published by H2 Gambling Capital and highlighted by the Betting and Gaming Council.
The analysis projects that stakes placed with unregulated operators will rise from £17bn in 2025 to more than £33bn by 2028, representing 19.2% of total online betting and gaming stakes in the UK. The figures have renewed debate across the regulated iGaming sector around the potential impact of tighter compliance requirements, affordability checks and taxation on channelisation rates.
According to the data, the projected growth of the black market comes as the UK Gambling Commission prepares to review proposals linked to financial risk assessments during its Board meeting on May 21. Industry stakeholders have continued to debate whether increased regulatory friction could encourage some consumers to migrate from licensed iGaming operators to offshore platforms that operate outside UK regulatory oversight.
The Betting and Gaming Council stated that unlicensed operators do not contribute tax revenues, are not subject to UK safer gambling rules and do not provide the same player protection measures required of licensed businesses. The trade body also pointed to the wider economic contribution of the regulated betting and iGaming sector, which it said supports 109,000 jobs, contributes £6.8bn to the UK economy annually and generates £4bn in tax revenue.
The issue of black market activity has become increasingly prominent across regulated iGaming markets globally as regulators introduce stricter consumer protection measures. Industry observers have noted that balancing compliance standards with channelisation remains a key challenge for mature online gambling jurisdictions, including the UK.
The latest projections also arrive during a period of ongoing reform within the British iGaming market, with operators adapting to new regulatory frameworks covering affordability, marketing, player protection and data monitoring requirements. Meanwhile, the most recent NHS Health Survey for England estimated that 0.7% of the adult population are classified as problem gamblers, while approximately 22.5 million adults in Britain participate in some form of betting or gaming activity each month.
Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the Betting and Gaming Council, said: “These forecasts are a wake-up call. The black market is not a distant threat, it is growing fast, becoming more visible, and attracting billions of pounds in stakes from British customers.
“By 2028, almost one in five pounds staked online could be with illegal operators. These sites pay no UK tax, support no British jobs, and offer none of the protections that exist in the regulated sector.
“The lesson for policymakers is clear. If the regulated market is made less competitive through higher taxes or intrusive checks, customers will not stop betting, they will simply move to the black market.
“As the Gambling Commission considers financial risk assessments, it is vital that any checks are genuinely frictionless and targeted. Any policy that unintentionally drives even more customers towards illegal operators will undermine player safety and damage the regulated sector.
“That is why ministers and regulators must avoid measures that hand an advantage to the black market.”
