Losing ground but still–by an ultra thin margin–The Favourite, is Donald Trump about to stage the greatest comeback in American political history?
Today November 5 is the day; the day that the United States goes to the polls in perhaps the closest–and certainly most consequential–presidential election in all its history.
Will the divisive billionaire property developer Donald Trump, pursued by claims of sexual scandals and financial skullduggery, reclaim the presidency he lost amid controversy to Joe Biden in 2020?
Or will victory go to Vice President Kamala Harris, who seized the candidacy from an ailing sitting President Biden in mid-July — and who may become America’s first-ever female leader?
Neck and Neck
The polls, indeed poll of polls, shed little definitive guidance on the outcome of this most fractious of presidential campaigns of recent times, which has seen two failed assassination attempts on Trump, who has been labelled a “Fascist” by his opponents–and they are many among the Liberal Democratic establishment–; while Harris, a fiercely-ambitious former California Public Prosecutor, has, in turn, been dubbed a “Communist”.
As of Sunday, the Election Betting Odds website was posting Trump as the 51.7 percent favourite to win, with Harris being given a 47.8 percent chance.
The odds represented a near-10 percent shift since last week and the racist performance of a pro-Trump comedian, Tony Hinchcliffe, who claimed that Puerto Rico, a U.S. dependency in the Caribbean, was a floating island of “garbage”: A poor joke at the best of times and one that may very well have cost Trump his second presidency.
While American punters and political junkies have long gambled on election outcomes on illegal or off-shore sites; thanks to a U.S. appeals court ruling early last month this is the first time that they can place legal wagers with national betting operators.
Today’s election chooses not just the next U.S. president but also determines who will control the all-important U.S. Congress.
The biggest futures betting website, KalshiEx, has taken some US$175 million (£134.98m) in political wagers, while their rivals PredictIt have collected US$42 million (£32.39m) to date.
Polls Side By Side
Kalshi has given Trump a 51-52 percent chance of becoming the most powerful person in the world. PredictIt surmises a Harris victory with odds of 53.1-54.1 percent.
Across-the-board, in terms of congressional betting odds, the Democrats are favoured to take back control of the House of Representatives by a narrow but firm margin and the Republicans are being mooted, overwhelmingly, to win the Senate by 78.1 percent over 21.9 percent.
Returning to the presidential race, per se, off-shore bookies BetOnline are offering American odds of +140 for Trump and -120 for Harris, making the sitting vice president the favourite — meaning you’d have to spend US$120 to walk away with winnings of US$100.
The biggest news on the eve of today’s presidential election was undoubtedly the surprise prediction by the normally-immaculate pollster J. Ann Selzer that Harris was ahead in Iowa, a state thought to be a Trump bastion.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said Selzer. “She [Harris] has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Wild, Wild Ride
Winning in Iowa does not a president make.
But the “Hawkeye” state is one of seven or eight so-called “swing” states, out of 50, so it’s a very big deal indeed.
Selzer is the doyen of U.S. political pollsters. She has correctly predicted the results of the last eight presidential elections. And this time around she’s plumped for a Harris victory.
How soon will we know the result?
Not any time soon, this journalist predicts.
Riots. Wild allegations of vote rigging and voter suppression are in the upcoming mix.
Hang on. Buckle up. It’s going to be a wild, wild ride.
The world waits with baited breath — and more than a modicum of dread.
This you can bet on.
