In defiance of growing moral outrage, but perhaps in keeping with the debased spirit of the age, controversial predictions market Polymarket–already under investigation for alleged illegal betting breaches–has opened a pop-up bar in Washington D.C., only minutes from the White House, where they are promoting event outcomes on the likely end of the current Iran war, the next political assassination – even the prospect of nuclear armageddon.
Founded by native 28-year-old New Yorker Shayne Coplan–the youngest self-made billionaire in the world–in 2020, crypto-powered Polymarket initially operated in the grey off-shore iGaming space, only being formally declared legitimate in November last year for onshore U.S. trading.
Since then, its value has soared from some US$2 billion (£1.49bn) to US$20 billion (£14.95bn) — the same valuation as its arch rival, Kalshi, which is fast emerging as “Good Cop” to Polymarket’s “Bad Cop” persona.
The pop-up bar, dubbed “The Situation Room”–in a nod to the crisis control centre of the same name in the White House–features live X feeds, flight radar, Bloomberg terminals and Polymarket screens.
It opened Friday at the weekend in the complex of bars and restaurants known as Proper 21, on F-Street, Downtown D.C., only two blocks from the White House, from where Mr Trump is currently waging war against Iran, plotting the overthrow of Cuba’s communist government and managing Venezuela’s new de-fanged government, following the sequestration of the South American nation’s Big Man dictator Nicolás Maduro by U.S. Navy Seals on January 3 this year.
Bet and Boast
“Imagine a sports bar. [But] just for situation monitoring – live X feeds, flight radar, Bloomberg terminals, and Polymarket screens,” boasted Polymarket in promotional material released before the grand opening.
It was President Trump’s Venezuelan venture, dubbed “Operation Absolute Resolve”, that kicked-off the latest prediction markets scandal, when it emerged that players, patently close to the administration, had placed insider bets on the timing of the fall of the oil-rich country’s socialist Chávista government.
As reported in these pages, one punter, who placed a bet, or euphemistically titled “event outcome”, with Polymarket on Maduro’s defenestration–only hours before the special forces action–walked away with an estimated US$400,000 in winnings (£298,580).
Weeks later it emerged that Polymarket had also allegedly taken a suspect “trade” on the timing of the joint U.S./Israeli air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities in June last year, a bombing campaign now known as the 12-Day War.
Secret Service
Israel’s Shin Bet secret service is currently investigating if one of their own officers made US$100,000 (£74,670) on the illicit bet.
Such has been the outcry over prediction markets taking bets on assassinations, murder and mayhem that Polymarket’s principal rival, Kalshi, has explicitly announced that it will no longer be taking wagers on such outcomes.
U.S. law, for its part, prohibits people betting directly on war and death.
But empowered by an administration that seems to reject traditionally-accepted norms and conventions, prediction markets, which came of age by successfully predicting Trump 2.0, have exploited the Wild West, Anything Goes, zeitgeist.
New World iGaming
Indeed the First Family itself is deeply embedded in the cryptocurrency-prediction markets nexus, with President Trump splicing a New World iGaming (NWiG) predictions vertical into his Truth Social platform and his son Donald J. Trump Jr. an advisor and investor in both Kalshi and Polymarket.
“The most corrupt corner of Washington D.C. may well be the intersection of prediction markets and the federal government,” one highly-placed source told iGamingFuture.
Meantime, with both Polymarket and Kalshi locked in mortal legislative combat with states and gambling authorities from Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and many other stations in between, the world waits for judgement from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – their nominal federal regulator, who are currently drawing up stricter guidelines for the great betting disruptors.
By the time the CFTC rules, one thing’s for sure: There’ll be new wars, crises and Trumpian interventions aplenty to bet and die on.
