Prediction Markets Boom: U.S. Demand Surges 5x in Just Eight Months – But Two Firms Are Taking Almost Everything

Prediction markets are all the rage in the U.S. and demand has surged more than fivefold since August 2025 but the boom is far from evenly distributed.

While most coverage of the sector has focused on trading volumes and valuations, new data from Blask offers a different lens – tracking real user demand.

And the data reveals that almost all of the category’s growth is being captured by just two platforms, pointing to a rapidly consolidating market.

Despite the rapid growth of the sector, the category has not yet reached its historical peak.

Current demand levels remain approximately 49 percent below the all-time high recorded during the November 2024 U.S. election cycle – a spike largely driven by a single, high-impact event.

From Spike To Steady Engagement

Unlike the sharp, short-lived surge seen in 2024, the current rally has developed steadily over eight consecutive months without a comparable macro trigger.

This shift suggests a structural evolution of the category, moving from episodic attention toward more consistent user engagement. At the same time, the competitive landscape has consolidated rather than diversified.

Kalshi And Polymarket Dominate

As of March 2026, Polymarket and Kalshi accounted for approximately 94 percent of all branded demand in U.S. prediction markets.

Both platforms have strengthened their positions during the growth period, increasing their respective market shares while the overall category expanded.

State-level data reinforces the dominance of the two market leaders.

In Kansas, for example, Polymarket controls 95.5 percent of branded demand, compared to Kalshi’s 3.5 percent, representing the most extreme imbalance.

Deep-South Louisiana shows the closest competition, with Polymarket at 59 percent and Kalshi at 35.3 percent.

Across all states, however, the two operators overwhelmingly dominate user interest.

Challengers Remain Marginal – But Signals Are Emerging

Beyond the leading duopoly, the rest of the market accounts for just six percent of total branded demand. Myriad currently ranks as the closest competitor, holding under one percent share.

Meanwhile, Robinhood presents the fastest growth trajectory in the category, with a year-over-year increase of +983.4 percent. While its absolute share remains low at 0.24 percent, the momentum indicates potential early-stage positioning in the space.

Key States Drive The Boom

The expansion of prediction markets is national in scope. But demand remains highly concentrated geographically.

California–where online gambling remains unregulated at the state level–leads with 15.9 percent of total U.S. branded demand, followed by New York at 10.8 percent. Together, these two states account for over a quarter of the entire category’s interest.

This concentration highlights the importance of granular, state-level analytics. As competition intensifies, operators are increasingly required to understand local demand dynamics rather than relying on aggregate national trends.

A Maturing Category

The latest data points to a category transitioning from volatility to structure. While prediction markets are still influenced by major real-world events, the current growth pattern suggests increasing baseline demand. And a competitive environment defined by scale rather than fragmentation.

As the market continues to evolve, the key question is no longer whether interest will return, but how it will be distributed — and whether new entrants can meaningfully challenge an increasingly entrenched duopoly.

About Blask

Blask is an AI-powered platform for iGaming and gambling market analytics. The company turns fragmented open-source signals into real-time insight on brand visibility, player demand and baseline revenue metrics that help teams move first, spend smarter and reduce risk across global markets.

To support deeper analysis of the fast-growing prediction market segment, Blask has also rolled out a dedicated prediction market analytics feature, enabling operators to track demand dynamics, competitive positioning and regional distribution in real time.