EXCLUSIVE: Prediction market sports contracts–branded an existential “California Kalshi Crisis”–have now come to the Golden State in flagrant violation of constitutional Native American betting compacts, warn Tribal gaming leaders.
To catch-up on the latest events in the fast-unfolding controversy, named after Kalshi, one of the leading prediction market players, iGF spoke with James Siva, Chair of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA) and Vice Chair of the state’s Morongo Band of Mission Indians.
Through CNIGA, Siva represents 52 federally-recognised Tribes in California — over 70 percent of the gaming tribes. Nominated for the 2024 “40 Under 40″ awards for Tribal gaming leaders, Siva is one of the most visible and powerful advocates for Tribal sovereignty in gaming.
In California–the biggest untapped goldmine in U.S. sports betting–casino gambling is controlled by the state’s federally-recognised Tribes and is legal on Tribal Lands, but with no sports betting options, either digital or retail.
Home to the world’s fifth largest economy, and generating around 15 percent of all U.S. GDP, California also hosts some of the biggest casinos in the U.S. –topping Vegas’ revenue by a cool US$2 billion (some £1.56bn) and contributing around 28 percent of the total U.S. Tribal gaming GGR annually.
“The take by Tribal attorneys in [a recent] IGA webinar that this is an ‘existential threat’ is fairly accurate,” affirmed Siva. “The real issue is how it’s being handled, specifically the self-certification process Kalshi used, and how the CFTC (the federal regulatory Commodity Futures Trading Commission) is backing it.”
Politics and Power
In CNIGA’s view, the CFTC is stepping outside its jurisdiction and greenlighting what are essentially sports betting markets, while misclassifying them as “event contracts”.
This mischaracterisation, says Siva, undermines the Wire Act, the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA), and even the CFTC’s own rules.
And what’s equally troubling is the lack of opportunity for democratic Tribal input.
“The roundtables we were counting on for dialogue were just cancelled,” Siva pointed out. “There was no opportunity to present our case.”
Siva submitted a letter to the CFTC on behalf of CNIG, arguing that the legality of these platforms is not only “questionable” but also poses an “active threat” to the public interest.
“The CFTC has the authority to say no. But here we are,” continued Siva. “We were hoping the roundtables would shed light on how the CFTC justifies this.”
Trump Jnr. On Board
As an active leader in Tribal politics and gaming, Siva doesn’t shy away from discussing the politics at play.
When asked about his thoughts on why the CFTC was not using its authority via the “Special Rule”, which allows them to prevent specific markets–including those offering an “activity that is unlawful under any Federal or State law” or “gaming”–from being offered, to prevent Kalshi, Siva explained this was the question on everyone’s lips.
“Donald Trump Jr. is on Kalshi’s board. I think that connection is too close to ignore,” Siva asserted.
“And we’ve seen the way courts in states like Nevada and New Jersey have already kind of given Kalshi the greenlight with very little pushback. It’s discouraging, but not the end of the matter.”
“We’ve worked with experts to understand the difference between event markets and prediction markets. Rebranding one as the other doesn’t change the fundamentals.”
While deregulation has touched many sectors under the new Trump administration, Siva says the issue here is more profound.
“This isn’t just loosening rules. It’s introducing an entirely new system–one without precedent–and creating rules that benefit a very specific group,” he charged.
Risky Business
Facing a fragmented regulatory response, and the rapid advancement of prediction markets, Siva–known for his ability to unite California’s tribes–stressed that Tribal leaders are now organising “a national response”.
“We’re working with the National Indian Gaming Commission, the Indian Gaming Association, and even some commercial partners, to coordinate our position. The key right now is education. Many Tribal leaders are just catching up to what’s happening.”
But, he emphasised, most Tribes have never dealt with the CFTC before.
“Building a unified voice is critical, but the issue is fast-moving, and leaders are already stretched thin managing their own governments,” he said.
“We’re working hard to make sure every tribe is informed and understands that people are working on this full-time. It’s the most pressing issue we’re working on right now.”
But pushing too soon, too hard is a “risky business”, given California’s complex ballot initiative process and shifting public sentiment.
“If we rush and fail in 2026, that’s more “no” votes piling up,” cautioned the gaming leader. “Voters may get fatigued with repeated ballot initiatives. That could start to damage public sentiment toward Tribes, even though we’ve built strong relationships and are seen as good community partners.
“Sports betting is a gateway into the future of iGaming, and we need to lay the right foundation,” he argued.
IGRA At A Crossroads?
The Indian Gaming Regulatory Act has long served as both shield and structure for Tribal gaming. But as technology and market pressures accelerate, Siva acknowledges that what once empowered Tribes could eventually restrict them.
When asked if he saw a future where the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act–which negates negotiations with the state via compacts–could become a hindrance, Siva concurred:
“I wouldn’t be surprised if that is the case. We’ve had similar discussions about IGRA potentially boxing Tribes in – especially with online sports betting.
“IGRA wasn’t written with digital platforms in mind,” Siva underlined.
Referring to the recent Seminole case in Florida, as a prime example of how judicial decisions are reshaping the application of the Act in the online space,
Siva said:
“We’ve had to rely on court rulings to clarify and expand what’s allowed. We’re not quite there yet, but the conversation has already started.”
Deal or No Deal
When asked about criticism from commercial operators–some of whom have labelled California’s tribes as overly protective or even “entitled” when it comes to sports betting–Siva responded without a beat:
“Yes. We are entitled. And unapologetically so.
“We built this industry from bingo halls to billion-dollar operations. We’ve changed lives. Our entitlement comes from generations of hard work and sacrifice.
“Those who hold that view are absolutely right. We are entitled.
“But just don’t come with this attitude if you want to partner with Californian Tribes.
“It won’t help you at all!”
