Euros ‘24, after 58-years of hurt, and at times humiliation, what are the odds of football finally returning home to the country who invented the world’s most popular sport?
Ladbrokes are posting odds of England lifting the Henri Delaunay Cup in the German capital, Berlin, later this evening (Sunday, July 14) at 6/5; giving them a 45.5 percent chance of winning only their second ever ranking title since their lone victory against a then-West Germany at home in Wembley in 1966.
Spain, who have won all six of their matches in their impressive run to the final are 4/6 favourites, a 60 percent chance of lifting their fourth–yes fourth–European championship.
Blessed with arguably their most talented squad of players since the losing semi-finalists of the Mexico World Cup of 1970, who many consider even better than the ‘66 winners, England, along with hosts Germany, entered Euro ‘24 as joint-favourites.
But Germany, who hammered Scotland 5-1 in the opening match of the competition on June 14, peaked too soon and were beaten 2-1 by Spain on July 5.
And so it is labouring England, managed by Gareth Southgate, driven by sheer willpower, beneficiaries of the softer side of the draw and luck, who find themselves on the threshold of greatness.
They have arrived at the sweet spot by playing the so-called “Beautiful Game” ugly – and by scoring spectacular goals in the breathless, “squeaky-bum”, nick-of-time: Jude Bellingham’s sensational 92-minute injury-time bicycle-kick against Slovakia and Ollie Watkins’ perfectly executed cross-goal grass cutter that sank Dutch hearts on the stroke of full-time in the semi-final.
Lucky
Napoleon famously asked of his marshals: “Yes…but are they lucky?”
And England, despite the undoubted quality of their line-up, have been riding their luck to find themselves in today’s final.
What are the chances of Aston Villa’s Watkins once again replacing England talisman Harry Kane–as a then-little known Geoff Hurst displaced the sainted Jimmy Greaves in 1966, scoring a hat-trick in the final–and repeating his definitive strike against Spain?
Try as hard as I can, I can’t find the odds anywhere.
But the betting prospect of England captain Kane winning the “Golden Boot”, as the tournament’s highest goal scorer, is everywhere: starting at 7/2 or 22.2 percent.
Despite his predominantly pedestrian performances, Kane has somehow–miraculously–scored three goals, one of them a scuffed–and undeserved–equalising penalty against the Dutch.
Perhaps Kane has been playing on muscle memory alone?
Genius
The brutal truth of the matter is that England–with the exception of their free-flowing, on-song first half performance against Holland, a vibrant exemplar of their best capability–have been pretty dire throughout the competition.
Against them is ranged Spain, indubitably the best team of the Euro ’24, orchestrated by Manchester City’s midfield maestro Rodri and spearheaded by the divine talent of 17-year-old Lamine Yamal, who has burst onto the international soccer scene much as a similar aged Pelé took the 1958 World Cup in Sweden by storm.
England for their part, with Bellingham, Phil Foden, Kobi Mainoo and Cole Palmer, also have brilliant individual players; all capable of pulling off magical, game-winning moves.
It’s a final, a one off; where form–as Manchester City found to their cost in this year’s F.A. Cup–can go out of the window, subsumed, defeated by one moment of genius.
Given England’s nail-biting, last-gasp journey to the Euro ‘24 denouement in Berlin; perhaps, for once, since 1966; their name is etched on a major football trophy.
And indeed football’s coming home to the land of its birth.
