As hard as he tried, U.S. President Donald J. Trump couldn’t quite steal the headlines and the celebrations at the final of the FIFA World Cup early this European morning as we set to publish your latest Letter From America.
As most of us saw–and cheered on–it was the team of fair play, Spain, who emerged victors after a titanic struggle against a side of cheaters, who had seemingly subverted football’s establishment.
After winning all 16 VAR calls they were involved with during the course of the five-week tournament and having two goals against them in the final struck off, Messi’s Argentina eventually cracked under the irresistible pressure of Spain’s passing machine.
Pitchside adverts for Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet, meantime, were constant reminders of yet another prediction markets scandal involving the Big Man so desperately trying to crash the party.
The Inside Game
ABC News has reported that Mr Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, allegedly made more than US$100,000 (£74,000) by trading on the contents of presidential speeches before they were delivered.
Perez allegedly used advance access to profit from New World iGaming prediction markets (NWiG), alleged the television news channel.
They reported that sources “close to the White House” said Perez had the final look at prepared speeches and last-minute edits before they went live.
He has now been placed on unpaid administrative leave and is reportedly discussing a “settlement” with NWiG’s regulatory Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
“Overruled!”
And that’s just the start of this week’s latest prediction market CFTC drama.
Last Tuesday, Chief Commissioner Michael Selig told Kalshi to ignore a Michigan court ruling ordering it to void certain trades, issue refunds and geofence outside of Michigan’s borders.
Escalating the federal-versus-state battle, Selig claimed Michigan was trying to “bully” the federally-regulated prediction market and he wasn’t standing for it.
This is the first NWiG market case in which the judiciary has not only sided with states’ rights but also ordered bets to be unwound.
According to legal whizz David Wallach, states have now won 18 of the 22 decisions on preliminary injunctions or temporary restraining orders involving prediction markets.
Curiously, Kalshi, via its Head of Enforcement, acknowledged the legal strain for the first time.
“We are being put in an impossible position, trying to comply with state court orders that may contradict our federal regulatory obligations,” Kalshi complained in a media statement.
If Kalshi doesn’t comply by August 12, we understand that they will be hit with a swingeing fine of US$500,000-per-day (£371,292).
MGM Sale Talks Heat Up
Barry Diller’s people are back at the negotiating table after initially offering US$48.30-a-share (£35.86), in cash, to acquire storied MGM Resorts International.
The Wall Street Journal has reported talks are heating up, with MGM insiders insisting the offer undervalues the company.
The bid values MGM at approximately US$18 billion (£13.4bn), including debt, or US$12.4 billion (£9.2bn) in equity.
A special board committee will now evaluate the offer.
Diller, who already owns 26 percent of the company, made his move shortly after Caesars confirmed it was selling to Tilman Fertitta’s Fertitta Entertainment in a deal worth approximately US$17.6 billion (£13.1 billion).
Here you can read our full analysis of Vegas’ latest power play.
Illinois Feels The Squeeze
Illinois’s tax experiment is beginning to bite.
The Land of Lincoln’s sports betting handle fell 10 percent, year on year, to US$1.14 billion (£846m) in May, with analysts blaming the state’s per-wager surcharge.
But although bettors placed 21 percent fewer wagers, the Prairie State still recorded its ninth straight month above US$1 billion (£742.4m) in handle, retaining its position as America’s second-largest sports betting market.
And GGR slipped only slightly, with sportsbooks reporting US$118.9 million (£88.3m), down 1.7 percent.
The silver lining?
Operators posted a record 16.4 percent hold rate, offsetting lower betting volumes and softening the state’s divisive tax regime.
Meantime, the Illinois Treasury collected a cool US$52.5 million (£39.0m) in gambling taxes, up 16.2 percent year on year.
If You Can’t Beat ‘Em, Tax ‘Em
North Carolina lawmakers have decided they may as well tax prediction markets, becoming the second state, after Illinois, to do so.
Passed as part of the new state budget, lawmakers settled on a six percent levy on net transaction fee revenue.
Rather than banning prediction markets outright, Illinois and North Carolina are seizing the chance to tax them while the federal-versus-state regulatory battle plays out.
And it’s a strategy that’s hard to fault, even if it gives de facto legitimacy to the contentious sector.
Push Back
A landmark report from Pennsylvania’s bipartisan Joint State Government Commission has warned gambling expansion is driving rising addiction, debt, domestic violence, abuse of college athletes, mental health issues and suicide.
The report’s recommendations, which will now be considered by Pennsylvania lawmakers, include:
- Banning live betting, credit cards and push notifications to logged-out users.
- Mandating RG tools and limits.
- Restricting gambling advertising.
- Limiting VIP programmes and AI tracking and promotions.
- And requiring operators to share anonymised consumer data for research.
Texas Tribe Breaks New Ground
Texas is building. And, as is the custom, it’s building big.
Construction has officially begun on what will become the state’s largest casino resort and the state’s fourth tribal gaming venue.
When it opens in late 2028, the Alabama-Coushatta Tribe’s 95-acre Naskila Resort & Casino outside of Livingston, East Texas, about 74-miles northeast of Houston, will also feature 3,400 electronic bingo machines, alongside restaurants, bars and conference space.
Later phases will add a 366-room hotel and an event centre, creating a full-scale resort destination.
