With an estimated US$53 billion to US$85 billion at stake (£39.48bn-£63.32bn), the FIFA 2026 World Cup has been labelled “the biggest betting opportunity in history”.
It’s also been mooted as the defining moment in the quickening battle to dominate iGaming – the putative game changing event when prediction markets, led by Kalshi and Polymarket, lay sportsbook slaughter to jaded market leaders FanDuel and DraftKings.
But beyond the hype and Trump-inflated zeitgeist–a gambling tornado that has seen Kalshi and Polymarket surge in individual value from some US$2 billion (£1.49bn) to around US$21 billion (£15.64bn) each in little over a year–, what’s the truth?
Who will win the sportsbetting World Cup? The Old Guard, struggling to stay relevant, or the new markets on the block?
Data Crunchers
According to data crunchers H2 Gambling Capital, an estimated US$60 billion (£44.69bn) will be wagered on the world’s premier single-sport event through legal sportsbooks, representing a 71 percent increase over the betting handle of Qatar 2022 and a 185 percent increase on Russia 2018.
In exclusive conflab with iGamingFuture, H2 extrapolated and estimated Gross Revenue–at a 12.5 percent hold rate–of approximately US$7.5 billion (£5.58bn) for the bookies, both DFS and predictions.
The biggest market, totalling US$5.7 billion (£4.24bn) will be in the host nations, unsurprisingly: US$2.9 billion (£2.16bn) in the USA, US$2.5 billion (£1.86bn) in Mexico and US$300 million (£223.49m) in Canada.
Gambling analyst Steven Pizzella of the Deutsche Bank Research Institute in The States puts the U.S. handle even higher at US$3.3 billion (£2.45bn) and is even more specific, giving a projected handle for each of the nation’s top sportsbooks.
Favourites
FanDuel could take about US$1.3 billion (£960m) over the course of the five-week tournament, involving 48 nations – the largest staging of the FIFA World Cup in its 96-year history.
DraftKings follows at about US$1.1 billion (£810m), says the Wall Street-based iGaming guru; BetMGM brings up third place with about US$250 million (£186.25m); Caesars kicks-in with US$120 million (£89.39m) and Penn’s theScore Bet, particularly strong in Canada, rides fifth with around US$83 million (£61.83m).
Meantime, across Manhattan, in what is now the biggest prediction markets event to date, Polymarket has recorded more than US$2.3 billion (£1.71bn) in trading volume on the tournament winner alone, according to their platform data; while Tarek Mansour’s Kalshi has raked-in US$277.3 million (£206.57m), and counting.
Polymarket, currently embroiled in a cluster of insider trading scandals, involving the timing of the Special Forces raid on Venezuela, Israeli air attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, et al, is running 600 live World Cup markets to Kalshi’s 500.
France and Spain–despite their astonishing, historic draw with lowly Cabo Verde in their opening game in Atlanta–are currently 16 percent favourites to lift the Jules Rimet trophy on July 19; Portugal are third at 11 percent, closely followed by England at 10 percent and Brazil and Argentina at eight percent and seven percent, respectively, on the Polymarket charts.
Kalshi, too, are running Spain and France as joint favourites to win planet football’s premier competition.
Sex Appeal
According to a recent survey of 588 American adults by anti-fraud platform SEON about their World Cup betting preferences, licensed gambling apps are still the most popular sports betting sites, at 29 percent; ahead of prediction markets, 19 percent; social casinos, 17 percent; with crypto-based platforms and off-shore sites bringing up the rear at eight percent each.
But crucially among 18 to 21-year-olds, the regulars, heavy-hitters and whales of tomorrow, prediction markets have the real killer advantage, the lure and the sex appeal.
“Among Millennials, specifically, prediction markets are nearly as popular as licensed apps. Thirty-six percent plan to use prediction markets versus 38 percent for licensed betting apps,” a SEON spokesperson told iGF.
“The data suggests that major sporting events are accelerating the adoption of prediction markets beyond their early-adopter base, particularly among younger bettors who are comfortable moving across multiple platform types.”
Nevertheless free bets, promotions, bonuses and better odds still hold sway in the sportsbetting universe, which means–that for this Mundial at least–online sportsbooks are on course to win the wagering World Cup.
Maxims
Yet as Max Tesla, Co-founder & CEO at gambling data miners Blask, attests:
“[Although] on tournament dollars the sportsbooks win this World Cup, that’s exactly the wrong scoreboard to watch.
“Prediction-market volume and sportsbook handle aren’t even the same unit.
“And on real wagering money, the books still hold over 90 percent of the U.S. market.
“What our data measures is what comes next: Consumer demand.
“By Blask’s demand index, Kalshi’s U.S. demand is up roughly 150 percent, year-on-year – while every major licensed sportsbook declined.
Real Story
“In December–11-months after launching sports contracts–Kalshi’s monthly demand passed Bovada, the offshore book that defined unlicensed U.S. betting for two decades. In our data, demand shifts like that show up in market share 30 to 90 days later.
“So the real story isn’t whether prediction markets out-bet FanDuel this summer.
“They won’t.
“It’s that the World Cup is the largest customer-acquisition event prediction markets have ever had.
“And the cohort they sign up by July 19 is the one the books will be missing in Q4.
“Operators should price their retention strategy against that, not against this month’s handle report.”
