American Football’s Super Bowl–the biggest betting bonanza in single event world sport–kicks off this Sunday in the “Big Easy” with a stake, both legal and illegal, that could top an astonishing US$20 billion (£16.06bn).
So this year’s Super Bowl (L1X) is a re-run of the last but one American football world championship, when the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles by the narrow margin of 38-35 in State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
The clash between the Chiefs, winners of the American Football Conference (AFC), and the Eagles, victors of the National Football Conference, is set for the Big Easy of New Orleans.
It will be the 11th time that the Southern Belle of New Orleans has hosted the Super Bowl in its 59-year history, a record it shares with Miami.
Threepeat
The Chiefs–led by their quicksilver playmaker, quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and arguably the best coach in American Football, in Andy Reid–will be vying to achieve a hitherto unattained “Threepeat” — winning the Super Bowl for three years in succession.
Last year Kansas beat the San Francisco 49ers in Los Angeles’ Allegiant Stadium by a close run 25-22.
Victory came thanks to the last-gasp brilliance of Mahomes, who set up a running drive in overtime and finished with him throwing a three-yard touchdown pass to Wide Receiver Mecole Hardman, with only three-seconds left on the clock.
The Big Ask this time is can Mahomes and his cast of Chiefs–among them high-profile offensive tight end Travis Kelce, who has gained added fame as the current squeeze of pop princess Taylor Swift–do it again?
Revenge
Mahomes, for example, will be competing against another supremely talented quarterback, Jalen Hurts, who will be thirsting for revenge after the narrow defeat in Arizona at Super Bowl LV11.
The Chiefs, who in many ways could be compared to the Manchester City of American Football, a top team in the late 60’s, early 70’s, who have dominated their sport for the last five-years, remain the favourites to once again lift the storied Vince Lombardi trophy.
Most gambling industry stakeholders and observers concur that around US$1.7 billion (£1.36bn) will be legally wagered on the contest, some 20 percent more than last year.
But what really takes the betting into the stratosphere are the vast sums–totalling over US$18 billion (£14.5bn)–that has, and will be gambled on grey and illicit platforms.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) has projected a betting handle of US$1.39 billion (£1.11bn) from legal licenced operators.
It has deferred from estimating the total spend of bad market bets this year.
Disruptors
But the AGA estimated that last year, the combined legal/illegal Super Bowl handle was around US$23.1 billion (£18.54bn).
Adding extra frisson to this year’s Super Bowl betting mix are the controversial pitches of prediction or event contract exchanges, such as Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com, who are locked in legal tussle with the federal regulatory Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Super Bowl betting on these sites, to date, has been relatively modest–some US$5 million (£4.01m) wagered with Kalshi, for example; while Robinhood has withdrawn from the market–but the AGA has said it remains “concerned” by the activities of these putative sports betting disruptors.
Back to the world of real time sporting greatness, Kansas City are narrow favourites by 53 percent to retain their title and win the “Threepeat”.
This keen American football fan concurs, wagering that Travis Kelce, despite an average regular season, will continue his post-season form and catch the clinching touchdown on the last Chiefs’ drive of the game — providing he keeps his eyes on the ball. And not Taylor Swift.
