Historical data analysed by UK sportsbook Midnite suggests fans can expect an above-average goal tally on the final day of the Premier League season. Based on trends since the league adopted its current 20-team format in 1995/96, gameweek 38 consistently produces more goals than any other point in the campaign.
All 20 Premier League clubs will be in action on Sunday, with matches kicking off simultaneously, and data from Midnite indicates a 14.5% increase in goals per game during the final round compared to the season average across gameweeks 1–37. The frequency of matches featuring both teams scoring increases by 10.7%, while over 2.5 goals in a game rises by 15.9%. Results also skew away from draws, which decline by 18.2%, with home wins up by 13.3%.
In 24 of the last 29 seasons, gameweek 38 has recorded a higher average goals-per-game figure than the rest of the season. This trend has held for 15 consecutive years. During the last nine final gameweeks, the average has exceeded three goals per match. With the 2024/25 season currently averaging 2.95 goals per game, Midnite projects Sunday’s fixtures could see that figure rise to approximately 3.38.
Although last season set a new high with 3.28 goals per game, a repeat is statistically unlikely. For this season to match or exceed a 3.00 goals-per-game average, 49 goals would need to be scored across Sunday’s 10 matches — a scenario requiring an average of 4.9 goals per fixture.
Commenting on the findings, Zach Amin, VP of Sportsbook at Midnite, said the final day often takes on a less cautious tone. “The last gameweek of the season often has a more open, unpredictable feel to it,” he noted. This has led to the final round becoming a popular betting occasion for accumulators, particularly those focused on goal markets.
The insights could prove valuable for sportsbooks and affiliates preparing for a spike in last-day engagement across igaming platforms, as fans and bettors look to capitalise on the season’s attacking climax.
“A mixture of teams playing with the handbrake off and teams desperate for points to win the title, qualify for Europe or avoid relegation, usually makes for great entertainment.
“Although this season, the title and relegation are already sewn up, there’s still teams vying for European places and, as the historical data shows us, fans can look forward to goals galore.”
